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Upsets of the night

BetUS, our favorite sportsbook in the whole wide world for UFC betting, has some decent odds up for upsets:

  • Fabricio Werdum (-600) vs Junior Dos Santos (+450)
  • Thales Leites (-500) vs Drew McFedries (+350)
  • Josh Koscheck (-160) vs Thiago Alves (+130)
  • Josh Burkman (-230) vs Pete Sell (+180)
  • Spencer Fisher (-350) vs Shannon Gugerty (+250)

Now let’s break em down:

Fabricio Werdum (-600) vs Junior Dos Santos (+450)

As you can see above, Werdum came in looking like a tubby bitch while Junior Dos Santos looks like a Brazilian sun god. If you don’t know who Santos is, you’re not alone. But here’s a crash course on what you need to know about him:

Junior dos Santos (6-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) trains with the crew formerly known as Black House, now known as the Nogueira Brothers Training Center — a fearsome group including Anderson Silva, the Nogueira brothers, and Lyoto Machida. Dos Santos is the current Brazilian heavyweight kickboxing champion with a record of 18-0. He holds a legit BJJ black belt with solid ground skills. He’s big and strong, and he hits hard with skilled boxing and kickboxing. He also works really well out of the clinch, mixing in good Muay Thai and good takedowns via trips and throws. He trains with the best camp in MMA bar none, not only training alongside the Nogueira brothers but under their trainers: grappling under BJJ black belt Amaury Bitetti, who instructs the aforementioned Nogueira brothers in BJJ, and trains boxing under Luis Dorea, who trained Antonio Rogerio Nogueira to become the Brazilian Olympic National Boxing Champion.

The line tightened on this fight after people saw Junior Dos Santos hitting the mits on Thursday (the first time I’ve ever heard people flip out over someone’s performance during a media workout), and they’ve tightened even more since the above weigh-in pics came out. The odds are still nice and wide enough that there’s a major edge to play here.

Thales Leites (-500) vs Drew McFedries (+350)

I think Thales Leites owns McFedries on the ground but McFedries owns Leites on the feet. Since all fights start standing up, I’m betting on McFedries testing Leites’ chin before he has a chance to apply his jiu jitsu.

Josh Koscheck (-160) vs Thiago Alves (+130)

I have no idea how Alves isn’t the favorite in this fight. Josh Koscheck couldn’t finish Chris fucking Lytle and came millimeters away from losing to Dustin Hazellett. Thiago Alves is on a five fight knockout streak. I get the feeling that Koscheck is going to try and apply the same strategy his camp mate Jon Fitch used to beat Alves. Unfortunately, he isn’t Fitch and Alves isn’t the same Alves who lost to him two years ago.

Josh Burkman (-230) vs Pete Sell (+180)

Burkman’s fun and all, but he sucks at finishing. He’s got his wrestling, he’s got his slams, and that’s about it. Add to the fact that he gasses out like clockwork in the third round and you’ve got a recipe for Pete Sell coming back to win this one late in the fight. Burkman is 1-3 in his past 4 fights and the sole victory was a bullshit decision against Forrest Petz. And Forrest Petz isn’t very good either. Neither is Sell … but I like the way his style matches up against Burkman.

Spencer Fisher (-350) vs Shannon Gugerty (+250)

Everyone keeps asking if Clay Guida is the lightweight gatekeeper but I don’t think that’s fair considering the number of times he’s been fucked over by judges. I see Spencer Fisher as potential gatekeeper material, and tonight we’ll see if that is cemented. This fight is the most tenuous of my potential upset predictions because it’s based more off my opinion of Spencer Fisher than for my thoughts of Shannon Gugerty. Shannon’s got a 9-2 record with all his wins coming by submission and KO. Spencer Fisher seems to have a hard time finishing fights and wasn’t able to stop Jeremy Stephens.

Also worth mentioning for your uncontrollable betting addiction needs are parlays … where you bet on a string of different fights and if they all win you cash out. My general rule is I only bet on favorites with my parlays, but in this case I’ve included Thiago Alves in one. Read more strategies on UFC 90 parlays here.

So there’s our betting guide for UFC 90 … as usual, we recommend BetUS because they’re cool and they support us in everything we do. They also give us money when you sign up. So even if you lose all your money, be happy knowing that some of it went into our pockets. It’s like we’re profiting off your tears … your delicious, salty tears.