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TUF 10 Finale Degenerate Gambling Odds

It’s time once again to put your future financial security at risk in order to experience the excitement that comes from gambling on human cockfighting. After all, it’s just money, and what is money besides something I exchange for disinterested sex and overcooked meat loaf? (Both from your mother, of course.)

This weekend’s card includes NFL washouts, a single father of six, a deaf guy, a former porn star bodyguard, a potential neo-nazi supporter, and a man who has never turned down an invitation to the Old Country Buffet. That sounds like either a poorly done reality show or a meeting for All Addicts Anonymous. There are also a couple of fighters on the cusp of title contention, notably Jon “Bones” Jones and Frankie “The Answer” Edgar.

Should be an interesting night of fights. Here are the betting odds, courtesy of

Roy Nelson -220 vs. Brendan Schaub +175

Jon Jones -260 vs. Matt Hamill +200

Frank Edgar -700 vs. Matt Veach +450

Houston Alexander -260 vs. Kimbo Slice +200

Marcus Jones -350 vs. Matt Mitrione +250

James McSweeney -120 vs. Darrill Schoonover -110

Mark Bocek -450 vs. Joe Brammer +325

John Howard -250 vs. Dennis Hallman +250

Brian Stann -140 vs. Rodney Wallace +110

Justin Wren -450 vs. Jon Madsen +325

Half-assed analysis after the jump.

Safe Bet: The answer to this one would likely go to either Justin Wren or Frank Edgar, as I think neither of their opponents stand a chance. But the line on both of those guys is so big that the possible reward isn’t even worth the risk of an upset. For that reason, Jon Jones has to be the safe bet of the night. Don’t get me wrong: Matt Hamill is a tough fighter who gets better every time out. The problem is that “Bones” is simply a bad style match-up for him. Hamill typically relies on his terrific wrestling to dictate where the fight takes place, and uses that ability to either ground-and-pound guys or land heavy shots standing. He won’t be able to do that against the 22 year old Jones, who has the wrestling ability to counter Hamill. This means the majority of this fight should take place standing-up, where Jones is simply too quick for the Buffalo native.

Underdog Pick: Brendan Schaub. No doubt about it. Schaub showed an all around skill set on this season of TUF, as well as the ability to take punishment, stay calm, and come back for the win. Nelson is, of course, a seasoned veteran, but he has done little to impress in his recent fights, save for his controversial loss to Jeff Monson. Schaub only had four pro fights before entering the TUF house. He’s had the past few months to continue honing his skill set, and I’m positive he’s prepared for Nelson’s belly to be on top of him at some point. I think Schaub has a good chance to pull off the upset, making him a solid underdog bet at +175.

Too Close To Call: Kimbo vs Houston. The Nebraska radio DJ is going to enter this one a better all around fighter, having worked to improve all facets of his game over the past year. At the same time, this one is going to start on the feet and will absolutely finish on the feet. Alexander is the rightful favorite over the one dimensional Kimbo, but the reality is that whoever lands the first big shot is going to win this fight. It’s a toss up if I’ve ever seen one.

Safe Bet #2: Darrill Schoonover. “Titties” looked impressive when finishing Zak Jensen and boasts a 10-0 pro record, as well as a 14-0 amateur record. He hits hard, fights well off of his back, and seems to have that killer instinct required to finish fights. His loss to Marcus Jones, more than anything else, should be attributed to the fact that Jones is a literal giant. McSweeney, on the other hand, has a 3-4 pro record, with losses to UFC washouts Neil Grove and Mostapha Al-Turk. He was involved in possibly the worst fight in the history of TUF against Wes Schivers, looked unimpressive against the half-retarded Matt Mitrione before sinking a guillotine that a BJJ white belt could have done, and was handled easily on the ground by “Big Country.” Schoonover by stoppage.