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Jackal Gambling – UFC 123 (the main card)

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Now for the fights.  (click here)

Spike Prelims

Aaron Simpson (+105) v Mark Munoz (-135) – Awesome, awesome fight.  Both are very good wrestlers and large middleweights coming off of losses (Simpson to Leben, Munoz to Okami) and hungry to get back into the mix.  Munoz has lost some luster after losing to Okami, but now that Yushin is in line for a title shot, is it possible that Munoz simply wasn’t ready at this stage for a top five middleweight?  I’m not going to hold that against him here.  Simpson, on the other land, looked awesome against Leben until gassing in the second.  I like Munoz for a small play here.

Matt Brown (+115) v Brian Foster (-145) – Two of Chris Lytle’s former victims meet up here.  Foster is 2-2 in the UFC, with wins over the formerly overhyped Brock Larson and Forrest Petz and losses to Lytle and Rick Story.  I don’t understand how Brown, coming off of consecutive losses to Lytle and Almeida, is an underdog in this fight.  Had I money, this would be one of my chosen lines.

Main Card

Gerald Harris (-280) v Manuel Falcao (+210) – When in doubt, a) bet the fighter not making his Octagon debut or b) keep your money away.  Harris is solid and a pretty crappy UFC debut fight, but Falcao has a lot of good things saying about him.  I’ll enjoy watching this with no fiscal motives attached.

George Sotiropolous (-210) v Joe Lauzon (+165) – Snuffleupagus is finally in the discussion, and not a moment too soon – he’s possessed of awesome jits, a calm demeanor and a physique that would make your uncle happy with his own.  Creepy Joe is game as hell, but I’m not about to elevate him above George simply because he kicked the shit out of someone that lost to cake on TUF.  Maynard better start drilling sub defense like hell – however, I don’t like the line enough to bet.

Phil Davis (-550) v Tim Boetsch (+375) – Put it this way: Davis is almost as large a favorite over Boetsch as I made Detroit over humanity’s capacity to overcome yesterday.  The Barbarian just can’t catch a break – he is, however, in line to catch a beating from Mr Wonderful tomorrow.  Wait until Phil is close in betting when he makes his inevitable step up, then capitalize.

BJ Penn (-190) v Matt Hughes (+155) – My kingdom for some Goddamn disposable income!  BJ’s lost two straight fights and hasn’t won at 170 since defeating Hughes in January 2004, while Hughes has won three straight fights at the weight, has been more active and still represents the prototypical wrestler to put against a BJJ black belt.  Only difference is the wrestler knows sub defense and never had a massive amount of hand speed to lose (unlike Penn).  I feel confident that Hughes will take the trilogy, and I’d be happy to make a straight bet on those odds.

Lyoto Machida (-260) v Rampage Jackson (+200) – You guys could write this.  “Rampage is slow and plodding: he’ll walk Machida down and eat a bunch of leg kicks for his trouble.  Then, he’ll either get wild and get KO’ed, or gas and get decisioned.”  “Rua > Jackson when it comes to gameplanning.”  “THE MACHIDA ERA IS UNPAUSED!”  All true – it’s silly to pick against Lyoto, he of one loss and a 1-1 record against the champion – but look at the damn lines!  If Rampage catches him one out of three fights, it’s worth it!  This line is the definition of “taking a floater” – besides, if Rampage actually DOES pull it off, wouldn’t it be nice to announce to the bar that you “>just won a shitload of money?

Wikipedia: M.A.D.E. is the third studio album by rapper Memphis Bleek. »