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From underdog to favorite

Steve Cofield points out some interesting action on one of the betting lines: Ricardo Almeida went from being an underdog to the favorite:


Who knows more about the game, the oddsmakers or the bettors?

Normally, I’d laugh at this question. If the public is overwhelmingly on one side, goes against it. They don’t build billion dollar casinos because the sports books lose consistently. But with MMA betting it’s a little different. It’s a very new, unfamiliar sport to many sports book directors.

They tabbed Cote a big favorite initially and the line has completely flipped towards Almeida. Almeida looked like the next big thing back in 2003 before a long layoff. He had chalked up wins over Ryo Chonan, Kazuo Masaki and Nate Marquardt. He was excellent in his comeback fight against Rob Yundt.

Cote has one big weapon and that’s the KO punch. But he can also be lulled into a fight where he scores very little. We saw that he is shaky on the ground in his loss to Travis   Lutter? I’ll take an excellent wrestler or jiu-jitsu fighter over a striker anyday.

I wouldn’t bet on this fight because you’ve got two unknowns: For Almeida, you’ve gotta wonder if he’s still as good as he was before, and even if he is, if that’s good enough to hang in the UFC today. With Cote it’s always a question of who’ll show up … he’s another French-Canadian fighter with loads of talent who’s consistently inconsistent.