Steve Cofield does a good job outlining the betting sitch for UFC 100, even though he doesn’t make money off betting affiliates like we do. This makes me feel a slight bit of shame, so I’ll try to cover that aspect of things better for this event. Here’s his thoughts on how the uneducated fool watching his first UFC in three years is gonna help drive up edges for the more discerning bettor:
Every sport has its public teams. Those are the squads that public will pound in spite of the fact that the value in the odds disappears at a certain point. In the NFL, it’s the Patriot. The Yankees are still the team in baseball. Bettors love the Lakers in the NBA and schools like USC, Oklahoma and Florida are slammed regardless of the number in college football.
At UFC 100, Brock Lesnar and Georges St. Pierre represent the hack’s chalk plays. If you look at the odds for the top three fights at UFC 100, it appears the card actually sucks. It’s built around three blowout fights with the smallest favorite being St. Pierre 2-to-1. Dan Henderson is 3-to-1 and Lesnar is 2 1/2-to-1. But don’t fooled, there could be value in all three underdogs. The sportsbooks’ job isn’t to predict a winner, it’s to predict where the betting dollars will land and try to make sure an equal amount of money is bet on both sides. Right now, all three of these fights might be 20 or 30 cents too high on the favorite.
I’ve been told by Damon over at BetUS that the best way to make money over the long haul in sports betting is to make small unit plays on favorites rather than go for bigger plays when you see an underdog that really should be a favorite. A unit represents a set chunk of the money you fuck around with to bet. I’ve been riding a $100 free play from BetUS for over a year now and my unit is $10 and I rarely go above 2 units ’cause I’m a pussy. But I still chase the underdogs on a regular basis, and I’m tempted to do so for UFC 100.
Brock Lesnar -240
Frank Mir +190
Georges St Pierre -300
Thiago Alves +220
Dan Henderson -230
Michael Bisping +180
It will be interesting to see what happens as the event grows closer … if Frank Mir’s odds will tighten up or if he’ll slide in +200 and beyond territory, where I’d actually bet on him. And those who are still wary of GSP’s habit of choking or his chin … well, Thiago Alves at +220 ain’t too shabby either. Funny enough, my unfounded suspicion is that Michael Bisping will be the one to pull off the upset of the night, but I’m not betting that way since it’s just a strange gut feeling. Too many old guys getting beat by younger, hungrier dudes.
If you’re wondering what all these + or – numbers mean, I’ll put up a guide later this week to explain how it all works in layman’s terms. And I’m thinking what better time than UFC 100 to let Cage Potato attempt to take their revenge for the UFC 85 ipecac bet. I’ve got the perfect humiliating punishment for the loser lined up too.